Chrome ore imports remain high, demand is insufficient, bullish expectations drive chrome ore prices to fluctuate upward [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 28 News: According to China Customs statistics, China's chrome ore imports in January 2025 were 1.7226 million mt, down 276,100 mt MoM, a decrease of 13.81%, and down 234,800 mt YoY, a decrease of 12%. In January, China imported 1.4556 million mt of chrome ore from South Africa. In February 2025, China's chrome ore imports were 1.8244 million mt, up 101,800 mt MoM, an increase of 5.91%, and up 363,200 mt YoY, an increase of 24.85%. In February, China imported 1.5981 million mt of chrome ore from South Africa. From January to February 2025, China's total chrome ore imports were 3.547 million mt, up 128,400 mt YoY, an increase of 3.75%. According to the SMM survey, domestic high-carbon ferrochrome steel tender prices have remained low in recent months. Under such circumstances, domestic ferrochrome producers have shown low production willingness, with insufficient operating rates, leading to a pull back in demand for chrome ore. However, chrome ore imports have remained at a high level, causing port inventories to continuously rise, and the monthly inventory-to-sales ratio has rebounded to above 2. Despite this supply-demand imbalance, chrome ore prices have not been affected. Earlier, chrome ore prices had fallen to a periodic low, but current stainless steel production has increased, and the concentration of chrome ore supply is high, coupled with fewer shipments from mines holding low-priced ore. Considering these factors, the market expects chrome ore imports to decline in March, thus showing strong confidence in a future price increase. Driven by this expectation, chrome ore futures prices have risen by $70 since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday to this week. Currently, chrome ore prices are rising rapidly, but steel tender prices are difficult to match, making it hard for ferrochrome producers to fully recover from losses, and increasing ferrochrome production faces challenges, thus limiting the growth in demand for chrome ore. Overall, the current supply-demand imbalance in chrome ore is not prominent. Going forward, it is still necessary to focus on stainless steel production schedules and the trend of high-carbon ferrochrome steel tender prices.